Olá a todos! Hoje daremos continuidade ao tema sobre análise e interpretação de dados com uma abordagem mais aprofundada com intuito de gerar informações que possam ser de maior utilidade dentro de uma equipe.
Sabemos da dificuldade de transformar dados e relatórios numéricos em informações relevantes devido a origem estocástica e o contexto do futebol (como explicado no artigo anterior).
Apesar desta dificuldade existem alguns padrões que podem nos ajudar a adaptar e interpretar dados quantitativos e qualitativos.
Devemos lembrar sempre que os dados estão sempre interligados entre si. Sabendo como dar significado a eles, podemos não apenas descrever, mas analisar os comportamentos coletivos e individuais.
Uma vez estudado o contexto, quais são os outros fundamentos para aprofundar nossa interpretação dos dados?
Para realizar as análises quantitativa e qualitativa (coletiva e individuais) existem cinco palavras-chave; “O que”, “Onde”, “Quando”, “Quem” e “Como”.
Para exemplificar o utilizo das palavras-chave citadas na análise vídeo, podemos representar uma ação da seguinte forma:
- O QUE – Número de passes da equipe
- COMO – Tipologia de passe
- ONDE – Zona de campo?
- QUEM – Qual ou Quais jogadores?
- QUANDO – Com ou sem pressão adversaria?
O estudo destes dados não explica exatamente o porquê de alguma ação acontece, se anula ou se repete durante uma partida, mas segundo sua interpretação, podem dar informações sobre o andamento de uma equipe durante uma ou mais jogos.
Uma vez definidos os fundamentos e contexto do jogo, podemos dividir a análise em dois macros princípios; VOLUMEe PERICOLOSIDADE.
Esta divisão nos ajuda a entender melhor o que uma equipe tem como sua base de performance técnica.
VOLUME
Se entende por volume de jogo todas as ações que demonstram a capacidade de uma equipe de manter a Posse de bola, gerando o aumento de modo QUANTITATIVO as ações, indicando a dominância do jogo.
Como indicadores podemos ter a percentual da posse de bola, número de passes realizados, número de passes de passes certos, tipologia de passes entre outros. Ainda dentro a posse de bola, podemos ter uma correlação com a zona de campo, como por exemplo o chamado FIELD TILT. Esta métrica se baseia na quantidade de posse de bola da equipe nos últimos trinta metros de campo. Um exemplo pratico seria que se uma equipe tem 60% de posse de bola na partida, e no 100% de sua posse, 40% foi no último terço do campo como o indica o Field Tilt, significa que a equipe analisada teve um volume de posse de bola ofensivo muito alto independente da periculosidade criada. Este tipo de interpretação nos ajuda a entender a maior probabilidade e sensação de criar situações de perigo ao adversário, mas não garantem que um dos eventos mais raros (o gol) seja realizado.
Existem algumas características que podem alterar significativamente os dados do volume de jogo, dentre os mais importantes estão a qualidade técnica da equipe, a escolha estratégica do adversário e o resultado vigente da partida. Estes fatores mesmo se muitas vezes correlatos, são extremamente importantes para o conhecimento do contexto.
PERICULOSIDADE
A periculosidade tem como objetivo identificar a criação de jogadas que podem levar ao gol dando a real QUALIDADE da posse de bola. Os índices partem do número de finalizações, finalizações no gol, chances reais de gol, XG, XGOT entre outros.
Segundo o livro “The numbers of the game” (Chris Anderson e David Sally) nos big-5 campeonatos da Europa temos a média de que a cada gol marcado, são necessários 9-10 finalizações, ou seja cerca de 10% dos chutes totais ao gol. Se forem analisados as chances clara de gol, são necessários em média de 2,5 a 3 de chances criadas, ou seja a media de eficácia das grandes chances estão entre 33%-40% em base ao campeonato.
Mas o que estes dados significam e como posso me basear neles para a minha equipe?
Segundo dados de empresa de analises de dados como Opta, Statsbomb, Wyscout entre outros, a media mundial (inclusive brasileira) esta dentro os 30%-40% de eficácia em big chances criadas, isto significa que quando devemos interpretar o numero de gols de uma partida, primeiramente devemos observar se o numero de chances criadas e percentual estão dentro da media mundial, ou seja, em uma partida singular, podemos perder a partida mesmo criando 6 big chances e não realizando nenhum gol (abaixo da media de conversão). Mas provavelmente, se minha equipe tende a criar 6 big chances como média no andamento das partidas, será muito provável que eu entre na média e farei al menos um gol ou dois na partida, com picos de 3 se estiver em um ótimo momento.
Este tipo de abordagem aos dados já nos ajuda a começar a dar real significado ao que realizamos em campo para depois poder aprofundar em entender o porquê em um determinado momento a equipe pode estar acima ou abaixo da performance esperada. Para auxílio das possíveis causas podemos analisar todos os dados de XG e XGOT coletivo e individuais para interpretar a qualidade da finalização criada pela equipe e/ou do jogador em questão.
Para exemplificar de modo simples, analisando o relatório técnico da Champions League, o Barcelona foi a equipe que melhor aproveitou as chances criadas em base ao XG realizando 40 gols em um Xg coletivo de 30.5, ou seja realizou 9.5 gols a mais do que esperado segundo o dado.
O mesmo acontece a nível individual, o jogador Raphinha realizou 13 gols com Xg de 4.9, isto significa que sua capacidade de finalização foi muito além do esperado, tendo o segundo colocado o atacante Lautaro Martinez com 9 gols em um Xg de 4.5 ou seja o dobro.
Segue link para consulta: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tw3FLGvIjQtYJqty0GvuUazyVPTMB_0h/view?usp=drive_link.
Tendo o conhecimento dos dados e conseguindo contextualizar com a sua realidade, podemos dar significado real do que acontece em uma partida para uma visão holística dos dados.
Este tipo de abordagem nos permite refletir com maior profundidade e de modo mais objetivo o trabalho que vem sendo desenvolvido pela comissão técnica tendo em vista que a questão tática-técnica (tomada de decisão e execução técnica) dependerá sempre do jogador.
No próximo artigos entraremos na análise vídeo e suas tipologias.
Até a próxima
Bruno Loureiro Batista é Treinador/Analista de Partidas Individuais no setor de base da Juventus FC. É graduado em Ciências do Esporte pela Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie e possui licença UEFA A. Possui experiência em análise de desempenho e desenvolvimento individual de atletas, atuando no futebol europeu de alto rendimento.
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bruno-loureiro-batista-a95681165/
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